Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon through tonight — damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible as a strong cold front sweeps through with highs in the 60s to low 70s.
Tomorrow
Much cooler and dry behind the cold front with highs only in the 30s and 40s under building high pressure.
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The HRRR is pretty confident rain moves in around 3pm and really gets going at 4pm, where it's showing over 13mm in a single hour — that's a hefty downpour, so plan accordingly if you've got anything outdoors in the afternoon. Confidence is fairly high for the 3-7pm window, but that 4pm spike is the kind of intense burst that can shift by an hour or two, so keep an eye on updates as the day goes on.
Models and SPC are in strong agreement that widespread severe thunderstorms will occur with the cold front passage this evening.
The system is trending slightly faster with each model run, so the main storm window could arrive a bit earlier than the 5 PM–Midnight range suggests.
Storms will train over the same areas with precipitable water near 1.5 inches, but fast storm motion limits flooding risk — localized heavy rain totals are uncertain.
Issued Mar 26, 4:02 AM
A classic late-March severe weather setup is unfolding for northern Ohio today, driven by a strong cold front pushing in from the west. A warm front is currently over central Illinois and southern Indiana this morning, pushing warm, moist air into our region — temperatures will surge into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with dew points climbing into the mid-to-upper 50s. That combination builds what meteorologists call CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) — essentially the fuel thunderstorms need to become powerful. We're looking at 1,000–1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which is substantial for late March in the Great Lakes region.
Today's severe threat actually has two distinct windows. The first, from roughly 1–4 PM mainly in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, is tied to the warm front itself. If some of the morning elevated convection doesn't 'stabilize' the atmosphere too much, a few surface-based supercells could spin up with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado. This window is conditional — it may or may not materialize. The main event arrives from 5 PM through midnight, when the warm front gets shoved back south as a cold front and triggers widespread showers and thunderstorms moving northwest to southeast across the entire area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of northern Ohio under an Enhanced Risk — that's a Level 3 out of 5 — reflecting a genuine threat of organized, widespread severe weather.
The setup tonight is particularly concerning because of two ingredients stacking on top of each other: a strong 50-knot low-level jet at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet up) and 0–6 km bulk wind shear in the 50–60 knot range. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height — it's what allows thunderstorms to rotate and organize into dangerous structures. Tonight's storm mode will likely be linear (a squall line), and within that line, QLCS tornadoes are possible. QLCS stands for Quasi-Linear Convective System — these are tornadoes that spin up quickly within fast-moving squall lines, often with little warning time, making them particularly dangerous.
Behind tonight's cold front, high pressure builds in from Canada on Friday, crashing temperatures back into the 30s and 40s — a drop of 25–35°F from today's highs. Drier and quieter conditions return for the weekend before another warm-up Sunday into next week brings the next round of rain chances. For now, the priority is today: make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts, know your severe weather plan, and stay weather-aware from mid-afternoon through midnight.
Today
Mar 26
Fri
Mar 27
Sat
Mar 28
Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible — damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes — affecting the entire northern Ohio region.
Today 5 PM–Midnight
A conditional but real threat of supercell thunderstorms, including a possible tornado, ahead of the main event along the warm front.
Today 1–4 PM (NE Ohio/NW PA)
Small Craft Advisory on Lake Erie with waves building to 3–6 feet and winds 15–25 knots behind the cold front passage.
Thu night–Fri afternoon
Temperatures plunge 25–35°F from today's highs in the 60s–70s to Friday's highs only in the 30s–40s behind the cold front.
Thu night into Fri